CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-12-24T17:09:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-12-24T17:09ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/18651/-1
CME Note: Faintly visible as a partial halo SSW in STEREO A COR2 and as a partial halo SSE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3. May possibly be associated with a filament eruption visible in SDO AIA 304 beginning around 2021-12-24T10:30Z, with rising field lines faintly visible in SDO AIA 171 around the same time, and coronal change across the data gap in STEREO A EUVI 195 between 2021-12-23T21:15Z and 2021-12-24T10:55Z. | Arrival analysis details from Lan Jian: "Because the mag field rotations and enhanced magnetic field lasted a long time, from late Dec 27 to about Dec 28 16:00, I think there is a CME encounter starting with a shock at 8:35 on Dec 27. The aforementioned field rotation region corresponds to the magnetic obstacle. The CME is overlapping with a stream interaction region (consistent with the ENLIL solar wind run at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction). I would consider this as a CME+SIR hybrid/merged structure."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-12-27T08:35Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-12-28T01:04Z (-6.5h, +6.9h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 95.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC SWRC ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A and STEREO B. For 48 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2021-12-27T20:53Z and 2021-12-28T14:44Z (average arrival 2021-12-28T07:24Z) for 60% of simulations. - STEREO B between about 2021-12-28T05:08Z and 2021-12-28T05:08Z (average arrival 2021-12-28T05:08Z) for 2% of simulations. Additionally the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2021-12-27T16:37Z and 2021-12-28T06:56Z (average arrival 2021-12-28T01:04Z) for 95% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 92% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 3-5 range (below minor to minor). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_probabilistic_Kp_forecast_wdist.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_STA_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_arrival_STB.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107_STB_stack.gif ## Notes: Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For missions near Earth, a histogram of the probabilistic Kp forecast is also provided. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2021-12-25_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107/Detailed_results_20211224_170900_ncmes1_sims48_HILOX107.txtLead Time: 27.25 hour(s)
Difference: -16.48 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Robert Loper (M2M Office) on 2021-12-26T05:20Z
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